The SEC accepted several ETF applications related to Solana on Tuesday, increasing the likelihood of their approval. While ETF experts believe that Litecoin or Dogecoin ETFs are more likely to gain approval, the SEC appears to be prioritizing Solana.
The most decisive factor for ETF approval is whether the SEC classifies a token as a security or a commodity.
The Chances of Solana’s ETF Approval Are Increasing
On Tuesday, the SEC opened a public comment period on the Canary Solana Trust, an ETF proposed by Canary Capital. The agency also admitted similar applications from VanEck, 21Shares, and Bitwise, bringing Solana’s investment products one step closer to potential approval. This decision marks the beginning of the official deadline for a final ruling.
The SEC has 21 days to approve, deny, or extend its review of these applications. While delays are common, industry analysts believe that Solana ETFs and other altcoins could receive approval by 2024. Yesterday, Bloomberg analysts predicted that Litecoin and Dogecoin ETFs are more likely to gain SEC approval than Solana and XRP.
Even so, the SEC appears to be focusing on a group of Solana ETFs.
“Our official odds for altcoin ETF approval are out. Litecoin is leading the pack with 90% odds, followed by Doge, Solana, and XRP. We’re only making 33 Act IBIT filings, but it’s possible that 40 Act products, such as futures or Cayman Islands subsidiaries, will be approved as well,” Eric Balchunas wrote yesterday.
Last week, the SEC also accepted Grayscale’s ETF application. Now, the key question is whether the Commission will approve other altcoins like XRP or Dogecoin. Meanwhile, other asset managers are also prioritizing Solana. For example, Franklin filed an application for a Solana trust today, which will likely lead to an ETF application in the near future.
Growing Market Optimism
Odds are shifting on Polymarket, the leading prediction market. Currently, the community believes there is an 82% chance that a Solana fund will be approved this year. However, other altcoins are still awaiting decisions.
For instance, in addition to the top 10 tokens, altcoins like Hedera also have pending ETF applications with the SEC. The Commission is expected to review these assets on a case-by-case basis.
If broader regulatory clarity is established regarding securities and commodities, multiple altcoin ETFs could be approved simultaneously. For now, Solana appears to be the SEC’s primary focus.
