Daily Technical Analysis EUR/USD: Pair Regains Ground on Dollar Weakness

EUR/USD moved away from the bearish trend and returned to touch recent high levels on Tuesday, making another unsuccessful attempt at 1.1200. The euro has little reason to rise, but the dollar’s weakness is helping to maintain the uptrend. There is little data of interest from both sides of the Atlantic on Wednesday.

Euro markets are absent from the economic calendar for the mid-week session, while dollar traders will have to wait until the New York market session for a speech by Adriana Kugler, a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, at the Harvard Kennedy School in Cambridge.

Consumer confidence deteriorated across the board on Tuesday, with estimates for 12-month inflation rising to 5.2%. Consumers also reported a general weakening in their six-month household financial situation, and evaluations of overall business conditions turned negative. According to Conference Board Chief Economist Dana Peterson, “Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions turned negative, while views on the current state of the labor market softened further.”

Michelle Bowman, a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, made headlines last week by being the lone dissenter from the Fed’s almost unanimous decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points. Bowman favored a smaller, 25 basis point cut, citing concerns that the Fed might be acting prematurely before confirming that inflation is moving toward the 2% target range.

Despite Bowman’s concerns, declining consumer confidence has prompted additional bets in the rate markets in favor of a cut in November. The CME’s FedWatch tool places the likelihood of a second 50 basis point rate cut on November 7 at nearly 60%, with a 40% chance of a more moderate 25 basis point cut.