The EUR/USD recovered after three consecutive days in the red and closed above 1.0350, as market flows shifted, turning investors away from the dollar as a safe haven and boosting overall confidence. US President Donald Trump’s new tariff threats appear to be largely ignored by the markets, while Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has reiterated that the central bank remains data-dependent, despite the Trump administration’s trade policy being marked by price volatility and uncertainty.
Economic data in Europe this week has been mixed. On Thursday, Germany’s final Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices for January will be released, and EU GDP figures for the fourth quarter will be published on Friday. However, since these reports are not preliminary and are already well telegraphed by the time they arrive, they are unlikely to trigger significant market movement.
Instead, attention will be on ECB President Christine Lagarde’s speeches at the start of the week and Isabel Schnabel’s on Tuesday. Both are expected to reinforce the view that the ECB will adopt a looser stance compared to the Fed in 2025—one of the key drivers behind the persistent downward momentum of the EUR/USD in recent years.
Friday will also bring eurozone employment data, which is expected to show zero quarterly growth for the second consecutive quarter. However, employment numbers may have improved slightly, with quarterly employment growth easing from 0.2% to 0.1%. If the data disappoints, the euro could come under pressure, increasing speculation about more aggressive rate cuts by the ECB.
In the US, the focus will be on CPI inflation, due Wednesday. The overall year-on-year rate is expected to remain at 2.9%, while core inflation may decline to 3.1% from 3.2% in the previous reading. On Thursday, the Producer Price Index (PPI) is forecast to show a slight easing in core inflation to 3.3% year-on-year from 3.5% previously.
EUR/USD Daily Technical Analysis for February 12
The EUR/USD found support and rebounded above 1.0350 on Tuesday, breaking its three-day downtrend. However, momentum remains limited, with the pair still trading within a consolidation zone just below the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA).
