The SEC accepted several ETF applications from Solana on Tuesday, raising the chances of them being approved. ETF experts believe that it is more likely that a Litecoin or Dogecoin ETF will be approved, although the SEC seems to be focusing on Solana.
Essentially, the most decisive factor for the approval of an ETF is whether the SEC considers a token to be a security or a commodity.
The chances of Solana’s ETF being approved are increasing
On Tuesday, the SEC opened a public comment period on the Canary Solana Trust, an ETF proposed by Canary Capital. The agency also admitted similar applications from VanEck, 21Shares and Bitwise, which puts Solana
On Tuesday, the SEC opened a public comment period on the Canary Solana Trust, an ETF proposed by Canary Capital. The agency also admitted similar applications from VanEck, 21Shares and Bitwise, bringing Solana’s investment products closer to eventual approval. This decision marks the beginning of the official deadline for a decision.
The SEC has 21 days to approve, deny or extend its review of these applications. While delays are common, industry analysts believe that Solana ETFs and other altcoins could be approved by 2024. Yesterday, Bloomberg analysts predicted that it is more likely that Litecoin and Dogecoin ETFs will get SEC approval than Solana and XRP.
Even so, it seems that the SEC is focusing on a group of Solana ETFs:
“Our official odds for altcoin ETF approval are out. Litecoin is leading the pack with 90% odds, followed by Doge, Solana, and XRP. We’re only making 33 Act $IBIT filings. But it’s possible 40 Act things like futures or Cayman Islands subsidiaries will be approved too,” Eric Balchunas wrote yesterday.
The SEC already accepted Grayscale’s ETF application the week before. Now, the important question is whether the Commission will accept other altcoins like XRP or Dogecoin. On the other hand, other asset managers are also giving preference to Solana. For example, Franklin filed an application for a Solana trust today, which will surely lead to an ETF application later on.
In addition, the odds are changing on Polymarket, the main prediction market. At the moment, the community believes there is an 82% chance that a Solana fund will be approved this year. However, there are other altcoins waiting in the wings. For example, in addition to the top 10 tokens, altcoins such as Hedera have ETF applications pending with the SEC. The Commission is supposed to examine these assets on a case-by-case basis.
If general regulatory clarity is provided on securities and commodities, there could also be massive approvals of several altcoin ETFs. For now, Solana seems to be the SEC’s current focus.
