Stablecoins could experience an unprecedented boom if key legislation is passed in the United States this summer. According to an analysis by Standard Chartered, led by Geoff Kendrick, these digital assets could multiply their market value to $2 trillion in the next three years. This growth would also drive a new wave of demand for short-term US Treasury bonds (T-bills), estimated at up to $1.6 trillion.
Currently, the stablecoin market is worth around $230 billion, dominated by Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC). These cryptocurrencies are designed to maintain a 1:1 parity with the US dollar and, to achieve this, their issuers usually back them with safe assets such as T-bills.
Strengthening the dollar’s dominance
Kendrick emphasizes that this growth would also consolidate the dollar’s global hegemony. As demand for USD-denominated stablecoins increases, so will the structural need to acquire dollars to back them, reinforcing the USD’s role as the dominant currency in the international financial system.
“This would act as a medium-term counterweight to current threats to the USD’s dominance from trade tensions,” the analyst said.
The use of stablecoins would also facilitate cross-border payments, increasing the need to purchase dollar-denominated assets and further cementing its global position. According to the report, the “holy grail” of global finance would be an alternative to the dollar with equal liquidity and flexibility. For now, innovation in stablecoins seems to reinforce the appeal of the dollar and its associated assets.
A regulatory environment in the works
Optimism surrounding stablecoins has also grown thanks to legislative advances in the US. The GENIUS Act, already approved by the Senate Banking Committee, and the STABLE Act, which is moving forward in the House of Representatives, seek to establish a clear regulatory framework for these digital assets.
Standard Chartered projects that if one of these laws is passed this summer and signed by former President Donald Trump in a possible second term, the impact would be immediate: it would generate up to $400 billion annually in T-bill purchases, enough to cover all planned public debt issuance in that period.
This flow would exceed that of any other sector in terms of demand for Treasury debt, even the strong foreign buying seen after the pandemic.
Kendrick concludes that this phenomenon would consolidate the dollar’s dominance within the crypto ecosystem, making it difficult for viable alternatives to emerge. In this context, the network effect that favors USD-backed stablecoins becomes a key factor in maintaining their supremacy.
