The EUR/USD pair’s gains remain limited, with uncertainty prevailing ahead of the U.S. presidential election and critical economic data from the U.S. A potential Trump victory is seen as a possible dollar-strengthening factor, with the market currently pricing in a 60% probability for a Republican win, which could ease downward pressure on the EUR/USD in the coming days. As such, high levels of market nervousness and uncertainty are expected leading up to the election.
Job openings in the U.S. fell by 418,000 positions to 7.433 million as of the end of September, marking the lowest level since January 2021, and falling short of the 7.99 million expected, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Conversely, the U.S. Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose to 108.7 in October, up from a revised 99.2 in September and surpassing the 99.5 consensus forecast. This reading marks the highest level in nearly nine months, reflecting an improved labor market outlook.
Traders increasingly expect the Federal Reserve to implement a 25 basis-point rate cut at the upcoming November meeting, which may bolster U.S. dollar demand. Later today, during the American session, the U.S. ADP Employment Change for October and the advanced third-quarter GDP will offer insights into the Fed’s potential rate-cut pace and magnitude.
Market focus in the U.S. will remain on Non-Farm Payrolls data; a stronger-than-expected report could further support the dollar and drive EUR/USD lower over the coming weeks. Additionally, a potential Trump win, currently seen at around 60% probability, may sustain bearish pressure on the pair as election day approaches, with high levels of uncertainty expected to persist.
Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank is anticipated to cut its deposit facility rate again, though the size of the cut remains uncertain. Forex markets are currently assigning approximately a 50% probability of a half-percentage-point rate cut at the ECB’s December meeting.
Investors will be closely watching Germany’s preliminary Consumer Price Index data and the annual GDP growth rate for the third quarter for both Germany and the eurozone. ECB Governing Council member Isabel Schnabel is also scheduled to speak later, which could provide additional context.
EUR/USD Daily Technical Analysis for October 30th
Further weakness may emerge in the near term, with an initial target around the 1.0760 support level. If the EUR/USD pair surpasses the 9-day moving average, currently at 1.0831, a neutral outlook is plausible. However, a significant recovery would likely require a fundamental shift, limiting the pair’s potential upside.
