Concerns about the economy continue, especially over fears that the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates high for too long, hurting growth. More high-profile earnings reports are expected, and oil prices look set to remain volatile due to a combination of recession fears and geopolitical risks. Here’s a look at what will happen in the markets this week.
U.S. Data and Fed Speeches
After Friday’s weak July jobs report, which fueled fears about a possible recession, the economic calendar for this week is notably lighter. On Monday, the Institute for Supply Management will release its service sector index, which is expected to indicate moderate growth.
On Thursday, investors will hear about the state of the labor market with the weekly release of initial jobless claims, which are expected to pull back slightly from their highest level in nearly a year. Investors will also hear from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, who kept rates unchanged last week but left open the possibility of a rate cut in September.
More Earnings Reports
While many large companies have already reported their results, a few big names are still to come. Caterpillar (CAT) and Walt Disney (DIS) will shed light on manufacturing and consumer health. Reports from Eli Lilly (LLY) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI), key players in AI, are also expected. U.S. stock markets fell for a second day on Friday, with the Nasdaq Composite slipping into correction territory.
This was driven by concerns over an economic slowdown and fears that the Federal Reserve may have delayed a rate cut too long, compounded by drops in Amazon (AMZN) and Intel (INTC) due to weak quarterly results and outlooks.
China Outlook
This week, investors will be treated to information on how China’s economic recovery will evolve in the second half of the year through a series of economic data. The week begins with a private sector survey on services activity, to be followed by trade data on Wednesday and a consumer price reading at the end of the week. Recent data point to a gloomy outlook for the world’s second-largest economy, and recent rate cuts have highlighted the urgency of Beijing’s efforts to shore up growth. Policymakers will be closely watching Friday’s inflation figures for clues on how much more needs to be done to boost weak domestic demand.
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision
The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its next policy meeting on Tuesday after data last month indicated that core inflation unexpectedly slowed to a two-year low in the second quarter and that economic growth moderated in the first quarter.
Market participants will be looking to future central bank guidance, with a 70% chance of a rate cut later in the year if inflation continues to slow.
Oil Prices
Oil prices declined on Friday, settling at their lowest level since January, as economic data from the U.S. and China, the largest oil importer, heightened concerns about demand expectations.
The weak U.S. jobs report, coupled with slowing manufacturing activity in China, pressured prices lower on the risk that the sluggish global economic recovery will impact oil consumption. Oil investors are also keeping an eye on the Middle East, where the Iranian-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah said its conflict with Israel had entered a new phase. Meanwhile, last Thursday’s OPEC+ meeting did not change the group’s production policy, which plans to start withdrawing production cuts from October.
