This week will be critical for the markets, with the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, key data on retail sales and real estate, and earnings reports from companies such as FedEx and Lennar. The Bank of Japan will also unveil its monetary policy, adding an international component to the economic decisions that investors will be watching closely.
Fed Interest Rate Decision
The most important event of the week will be the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision. Policymakers have indicated that they will cut rates at their September meeting, which concludes Wednesday afternoon.
It is not yet known whether the cut will consist of a quarter percentage point or a half-point. Officials will also lay out updated economic and rate projections for the next few years.
The current rate is at an all-time high of 5.25% to 5.50%, and the Fed is expected to begin a series of cuts between now and the end of the year.
Retail Sales Data
This Tuesday, the Census Bureau will release August retail sales data. Sales are expected to be unchanged from the previous month.
In July, sales posted a healthy 1% growth. However, excluding autos, sales are expected to have increased 0.4%, in line with the growth seen in July.
Investors will be watching this data closely, as it provides insight into consumer behavior and the overall health of the economy.
Residential Construction Report
On Wednesday, the Census Bureau will also release August residential construction statistics.
A seasonally adjusted rate of 1.32 million private housing starts is expected, up nearly 100,000 from July. This data is critical to gauge the state of the housing market, a sector that has come under pressure due to rising mortgage rates, which have affected both buyers and sellers.
FedEx and Lennar Business Results
Corporate results will be another major theme of the week. On Thursday, results from FedEx and Lennar, two key companies in their respective industries, will be released.
FedEx (FDX) is a bellwether for the global trade and logistics sector, while Lennar (LEN) provides information on the housing market, which is vital in an environment of rising mortgage rates. These reports will provide further insight into how these industries are coping with the current economic circumstances.
Bank of Japan Monetary Policy
Finally, on Friday, the Bank of Japan will release its monetary policy decision. It is expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.25%.
This event is of great interest to global markets, as the Japanese yen has shown considerable appreciation against the U.S. dollar in recent months, partly due to the expectation that the Fed will cut rates.
