Bitcoin (BTC) options traders are targeting a price of $80,000 for the last days of November, regardless of the outcome of the U.S. presidential election.
Open interest (OI) for Bitcoin call contracts expiring at the end of November is concentrated around $80,000, according to data from cryptocurrency exchange Deribit, cited by Bloomberg. The expiration date for these contracts is Nov. 29, and the second most in-demand strike price is $70,000.
This data aligns with a trend recently observed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), where traders are pinning their hopes on the November 5 election as a key event for Bitcoin’s price trajectory, independent of who wins the presidency.
On the CME, most open Bitcoin call options accumulated last week at strike prices of $70,000 and $80,000, with notional volumes of $141 million and $120 million, respectively, for the Nov. 29 expiration, according to an earlier report by CoinDesk. That report coincided with a new all-time high in Bitcoin options open interest on CME, surpassing 172,400 BTC, as noted by Vetle Lunde, a senior analyst at K33 Research, last Wednesday.
It’s worth noting that open interest measures the total number of active futures contracts held by participants and is often used as an indicator to gauge market confidence and the strength of a price trend.
Trump or Harris, It Doesn’t Matter for Bitcoin
There has been speculation that Bitcoin’s bullish behavior is correlated with the growing chances of a Donald Trump victory, as noted by analysts at Bitfinex in a recent report.
The odds of Trump being re-elected as president next month have been rising in a contract on the cryptocurrency prediction marketplace Polymarket, where bettors currently place a 64% chance of victory for the Republican candidate, compared to 36% for Kamala Harris.
However, some analysts suggest that conditions appear bullish for Bitcoin regardless of which candidate wins. The market seems to anticipate that both candidates will push for new regulations in the cryptocurrency industry, which could ultimately benefit Bitcoin’s price performance.
Several key figures in the digital asset industry have publicly supported Harris. Chris Larsen, co-founder of Ripple, has claimed to have contributed $10 million in XRP to the Democratic candidate’s campaign. Meanwhile, other prominent figures, such as Jesse Powell, co-founder of Kraken, and the Winklevoss twins, have endorsed Trump.
More Bullish Sentiment as December Approaches
Bitcoin futures traders are even more bullish for the end of 2024, according to Bloomberg, with projections suggesting a six-digit price for Bitcoin—a record never before reached for the cryptocurrency. The OI for options expiring on December 27 is clustered around $100,000 and $80,000, the news agency wrote, citing data from Deribit.
In contrast, the most popular strike price for options expiring on November 8 is $75,000, the report added. This price seems to align with predictions on Polymarket, where bettors see a 33% chance of Bitcoin reaching $70,000 before the end of October.
October has historically been a bullish month for Bitcoin, closing with a positive performance in nine of the last eleven years. All eyes are currently on the U.S. election and macroeconomic developments, with the Federal Reserve’s upcoming monetary policy decision expected to be a pivotal factor.
