Bitcoin (BTC) options traders are targeting a price target of $80,000 for the last days of November, regardless of who wins the U.S. presidential election.
Bitcoin options open interest (OI) for call contracts expiring at the end of November is concentrating around $80,000, Bloomberg said based on data from cryptocurrency exchange Deribit. The expiration date for those contracts is Nov. 29, and the second most in-demand strike price is $70,000.
The data obtained seems to be in sync with the trend observed recently on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), indicating that traders are pinning their hopes on the upcoming November 5 election as a determining event for the trajectory of the Bitcoin price, beyond who gets elected president.
On the CME, most open Bitcoin call options accumulated the previous week at strike prices of $70,000 and $80,000, with notional volume of $141 million and $120 million, correspondingly, for the Nov. 29 expiration, notes an earlier report from CoinDesk. That report came to coincide with a new all-time high in Bitcoin options open interest on CME, above 172,400 BTC, as noted by Vetle Lunde, senior analyst at K33 Research, last Wednesday.
It’s worth noting that open interest measures the total number of active futures contracts held by participants and is often used as an indicator to gauge market confidence and the strength of the price trend.
Trump or Harris, it doesn’t matter for bitcoin
So far, there has been speculation that there is a correlation between bitcoin’s bullish behavior and the chances of a Donald Trump victory, as noted by analysts at Bitfinex in a recent report.
The odds of Trump being re-elected as president next month have been on the rise in a contract on cryptocurrency prediction marketplace Polymarket, with bettors currently putting a 64% chance of victory on the Republican candidate versus 36% for Kamala Harris.
However, some analysts have agreed that conditions appear to be bullish for both candidates, on the grounds that the market seems to anticipate that both candidates will strive to promote new regulations for the cryptocurrency industry while in office, which will ultimately be beneficial for Bitcoin’s price performance.
Some personalities in the digital asset industry have publicly shown their support for Harris. Chris Larsen, co-founder of Ripple, is one of those who has claimed to have contributed $10 million in XRP to the Democratic candidate’s campaign, while others such as Jesse Powell, co-founder of Kraken, and the Winklevoss twins have endorsed Trump.
More bullish as December approaches
Bitcoin futures traders are even more bullish at the end of 2024, according to Bloomberg, with projections amounting to a six-digit price record never before reached for the cryptocurrency. The OI for options expiring on December 27 is clustered around USD 100,000 and USD 80,000, the news agency wrote, citing data from Deribit.
On the other hand, the most popular strike price for options expiring on November 8 is USD 75,000, the publication added. This price seems to be in line with a prediction among Polymarket bettors, who see a 33% chance of Bitcoin reaching a price of $70,000 before the end of October.
October has traditionally been a bullish month for Bitcoin, having closed with a favorable performance in nine of the last eleven years. Eyes are currently on the US election event, as well as macroeconomic developments. The Federal Reserve’s upcoming monetary policy decision is expected to be pivotal.
