U.S. stock index futures traded slightly higher on Monday, following sharp declines in February, as investor sentiment remained cautious ahead of new tariffs set to take effect this week.
As of 05:05 ET (10:05 GMT), Dow Jones Futures were up 55 points (+0.1%), S&P 500 Futures gained 15 points (+0.3%), and Nasdaq 100 Futures advanced 75 points (+0.4%).
Wall Street Ends February with Steep Losses
Major stock indexes posted significant declines last month, largely driven by market volatility surrounding Trump’s tariff policies and shifting investor sentiment on artificial intelligence in the tech sector.
The Nasdaq Composite tumbled 4% in February, while the S&P 500 fell 1.5%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1.6%.
Trump’s Tariffs Set to Take Effect Amid Uncertainty
U.S. stock indices opened the week on a positive note as investors braced for key developments regarding upcoming tariffs and economic data.
In an interview with Fox News, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed that tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports would take effect on Tuesday. However, he noted that the situation remains “fluid,” with Trump holding the final decision on the proposed 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico and non-energy goods from Canada. Additionally, Trump is expected to impose a 10% tariff on Chinese imports.
ISM PMI and Jobs Report in Focus
Investors are closely watching the release of the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing PMI for February, expected to come in at 50.6—slightly below January’s 50.9—signaling a potential slowdown in factory activity.
Later this week, the nonfarm payrolls report, set for release on Friday, is projected to show that the U.S. economy added 156,000 jobs in February, up from 143,000 in the previous month.
Analysts at ING noted that the U.S. economy has started 2025 on weak footing, with Trump’s trade policies weighing on consumer confidence and spending, while importers rush to make purchases before tariffs take effect.
Earnings Outlook Dims
With earnings season wrapping up, Wall Street analysts have lowered first-quarter profit estimates for S&P 500 companies at a faster pace than usual, according to FactSet.
First-quarter earnings expectations dropped 3.5% in the first two months of the year, while full-year projections fell by 1% over the same period.
Crypto-Related Stocks in Focus After Trump’s Announcement
Stocks tied to the cryptocurrency sector could see volatility on Monday, as Bitcoin extended its gains following Trump’s renewed push for a Crypto Strategic Reserve.
On Sunday, Trump reiterated his plan, stating that Bitcoin, Ether, XRP, Solana, and Cardano would be included in the reserve, aimed at strengthening the U.S. position in digital assets.
“A U.S. Crypto Reserve will elevate this critical industry,” Trump said in a social media post.
Oil Prices Decline on Hopes of Ukraine Peace Deal
Crude oil prices edged lower on Monday as optimism over a potential Ukraine peace agreement outweighed positive manufacturing data from China, the world’s largest oil importer.
As of 05:05 ET, U.S. crude futures (WTI) were down 0.6% at $69.33 per barrel, while Brent crude fell 0.5% to $72.43 per barrel.
However, skepticism remains over the likelihood of a U.S.-brokered peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, especially after tensions flared between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy over the weekend, leading to the collapse of a planned mineral supply agreement.
In the meantime, data over the weekend showed stronger-than-expected expansions in Chinese factory activity in February, with stimulus measures ramping up compared to last year. A private survey also confirmed this trend, with the Caixin manufacturing PMI hitting a three-month high.
