U.S. stock index futures fell on Monday as investors remained concerned that uncertainty over trade tariffs could weigh on the world’s largest economy.
As of 07:00 ET (11:00 GMT), Dow Jones Futures dropped 103 points, or 0.3%, S&P 500 Futures declined 11 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures slipped 25 points, or 0.1%.
While Wall Street’s main indices closed higher on Friday, the week as a whole was volatile. The Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded its steepest weekly decline since 2023, falling 4.4%. The Nasdaq Composite sank further into correction territory, while the S&P 500 briefly dipped into a correction as well.
Additional losses are expected Monday after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview with NBC on Sunday that there were “no guarantees” the U.S. economy would avoid a recession this year. This statement came just a week after President Donald Trump declined to rule out the possibility of an economic downturn.
Federal Reserve Meeting in Focus
Investors are closely watching this week’s Federal Reserve meeting, where the central bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged. Market sentiment remains fragile due to Trump’s inconsistent stance on trade tariffs, particularly against major trading partners. The ongoing uncertainty has been a key factor influencing market volatility in recent months.
The American Chamber of Commerce to the EU warned Monday that a potential trade war between the U.S. and Europe could threaten transatlantic business valued at $9.5 trillion annually. Concerns over economic stability have further fueled recession fears, with the Fed expected to address these risks in its upcoming policy statement.
Recent data indicates that inflation remains resilient, while retail sentiment and the labor market have shown signs of cooling. A weakening labor market could encourage the Fed to adopt a more dovish stance on monetary policy.
Retail Sales Expected to Rebound
Markets will be closely watching the release of U.S. retail sales data for February, which will provide insights into consumer spending trends. The preliminary estimate suggests a 0.6% increase for the month, rebounding from a 0.9% decline in January—the steepest drop in retail sales since early 2024.
Despite this expected rebound, overall consumer sentiment remains weak. Many Americans remain concerned about the impact of Trump’s tariffs on their purchasing power, contributing to broader economic uncertainty.
According to the latest estimates from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), both U.S. and global economic growth are projected to be lower than previously expected.
Oil Prices Rise Following U.S. Strikes on Houthis
Oil prices edged higher on Monday amid concerns over potential supply disruptions after the U.S. launched airstrikes against Yemen’s Houthis. The U.S. vowed to continue targeting the Iran-aligned group until it ceases attacks on commercial shipping.
At 07:00 ET (11:00 GMT), Brent crude futures rose 1.3% to $71.49 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures climbed 1.3% to $67.80 per barrel.
The Houthis have previously targeted commercial vessels in the Red Sea, a key global shipping corridor that accounts for approximately 15% of worldwide trade. The escalation in conflict has heightened concerns about disruptions to vital shipping routes, affecting global oil markets.
U.S. and Russia to Discuss Ukraine Ceasefire
President Donald Trump announced Sunday that he will speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday as part of efforts to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine.
Last week, Ukraine tentatively accepted a ceasefire deal proposed by the U.S. during negotiations in Saudi Arabia, though the specific terms of the agreement remain unclear.
